NBA Finals Game 6: Preview, Props & Prediction

The Indiana Pacers return home for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night trying to stave off elimination while not knowing exactly what they’ll be able to get out of star point guard Tyrese Haliburton.
Battling a calf strain, Haliburton is expected to try to play against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who hold a 3-2 series lead.
Haliburton’s uncertain status is a significant wrinkle for odds and props ahead of Game 6.
ODDS & TRENDS
The Thunder were a consensus 6.0-point favorite as of mid-day Thursday. However, the spread was sitting at 5.5 at books including FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings and BetMGM, where Oklahoma City has been backed by 58 percent of the spread-line bets and 61 percent of the money.
The line had moved from 6.5 to 6.0 points at BetRivers, where the Thunder have drawn 83 percent of the spread-line money while the total bets have been almost even. The book reported taking a $57,660 wager on Oklahoma City at -6.5.
The 219.5 total points line has seen the Over draw 69 percent of both the total bets and money.
KEY STATS
Indiana has won eight consecutive home games following a loss, while Oklahoma City has failed to cover the spread in its past six road games following a win.
The home team has won the first half in each of the Pacers’ past 13 games, according to BetRivers.
PROP PICKS
–T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 Points (-107 at BetRivers): This has understandably drawn the highest percentage of prop money at the book with the uncertain status of Haliburton. McConnell is averaging 11.2 points through the first five games, although 18 of them game in Monday’s Game 5 loss in which the Pacers fell behind big midway through the fourth quarter.
–Pascal Siakam 20+ Points (-120 at DraftKings): Another market impacted by Haliburton’s injury, this has been the most popular play at DraftKings. Siakam is coming off a huge Game 5 in which he poured in 28 points. However, that’s the only game in the series in which he has topped 21.
THE NEWS
As Oklahoma City turned a 2-1 series deficit to a 3-2 advantage, Haliburton has struggled from the field, hitting just 7 of 21 shots from the field over the past two games, including a 1-for-11 clip from 3-point range. He has totaled just 22 points in 70 minutes.
“You don’t underestimate great players. In the case that he plays, we’re expecting his best punch,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “You don’t underestimate great teams. In the event he doesn’t play, we’re expecting Indiana’s best.”
Heroes of the series emerged from almost every segment of the rotation.
Haliburton’s near-triple-double in Game 3 was underscored by Indiana’s 49 bench points, 27 from Bennedict Mathurin and five steals from McConnell. Andrew Nembhard shifted to point guard in Haliburton’s place in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year, when the Pacers overcame a 3-2 series deficit to beat the Knicks in Games 6 and 7.
“I think obviously Tyrese is a big part of what we do. Whether he plays or not, I think it’s going to be a team thing,” Siakam said. “We have to together all step up. The importance of the game, we just all have to take a step forward. It’s going to be down the line.
“I don’t think any one of us should feel like one person is going to have to do it,” the Indiana forward continued. “It’s going to be collective.”
Siakam put up 28 points and stepped up in the fourth quarter of Game 5 without Haliburton. More of the same is in order if the Pacers wish to keep up with OKC’s 1-2 punch.
NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a combined 66 points in Games 4 and 5 for the Thunder. But the national spotlight has been shared with Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams, who tallied 67 points over the same span, including a 40-point outburst in Game 5 with the Pacers setting a defense determined to help and force the ball out of SGA’s hands.
“It makes me sound like a jerk,” Williams said of not answering his phone the past week to keep the focus on winning a title. “A big thing for us — we’ve done a really good job of focusing on us.”
Gilgeous-Alexander said being “on the cusp of winning is not winning, and the way I see it, winning is all that matters.”
He credited the organization for building the culture and environment to make the Thunder a marvel of a turnaround story.
Gilgeous-Alexander said he’s buoyed at this point in the season by the closeness of the locker room and how much fun the entire team is having.
“Focusing on Game 6,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “Focusing on just being the best version of myself for this basketball team for whatever it takes — however many games it is, however many possessions are needed, however many moments. Stay in the moment, and just try to stick to that script.”
Oklahoma City led 3-2 in the Western Conference semifinals and lost Game 6 to Denver before a dramatic effort to take Game 7. Williams said Oklahoma City didn’t “come out ready to play” in that Game 6.
Carlisle said the Pacers are leaning on the experience of trailing the Knicks 3-2 last summer, when Gainbridge Fieldhouse turned into an energy-feeding advantage for Game 6.
“Buckle down, stand strong,” Carlisle said of his message to the team.
But with SGA and Williams both averaging 30 or more points the last three games, Oklahoma City expects nothing less than greatness on Thursday.
“Most of the great players are art. They’re unbelievably unique,” Daigneault said. “That’s every great player. Siakam is like that. Haliburton is like that. They’re one of one. All the great players are. … They’re great players, but they do it inside the team (concept) and don’t suffocate the team.”
Daigneault isn’t yet talking specifically about the spoils at stake Thursday night.
“We’ve tried to take a stack mindset to everything we’ve done. Even when the team was rebuilding. You can’t skip steps in the process,” Daigneault said. “We want to win the game tomorrow.
“But the most important thing we can do is prepare today, prepare tomorrow. Play the first possession really well. And then the next possession. Win today. The minute you start to drift mentally into the future and into the past, it impacts your ability to stack the next thing.”
THEY SAID IT
–“We’re always trying to put ourselves in our opponent’s shoes. Zero and zero mindset. We’re not introducing any new concepts right now, we’re just relying on the psychological habits we’ve built over time.” — Thunder coach Mark Daigneault of Oklahoma City’s focus with a 3-2 lead.
–“I think it depends on who you ask. I have to understand the risks, ask the right questions.” — Haliburton said of how he’ll decide to play. “But I’m a competitor. I want to play. I’m going to do everything in my power to play.” –Haliburton on his playing status Thursday. He scored 22 points and was one rebound shy of a triple-double in Indiana’s Game 3 victory on June 11.
PREDICTION
This has the feeling of a potential Thunder rout as the Pacers have fought tooth-and-nail to reach this point but are now facing Game 6 with a limited Haliburton at best. –Thunder 120, Pacers 110